Climate Change Sensitivity Assessment on Upper Mississippi River Basin Streamflows Using SWAT
نویسندگان
چکیده
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the impacts of potential future climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Calibration and validation of SWAT were performed on a monthly basis for 1968-87 and 1988-97, respectively; R and Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency (E) values computed for the monthly comparisons were 0.74 and 0.65 for the calibration period and 0.81 and 0.75 for the validation period. The impacts of eight 20-year (197190) scenarios were then analyzed, relative to a scenario baseline. A doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations was predicted to result in an average annual flow increase of 35 percent. An average annual flow decrease of 15 percent was estimated for a constant temperature increase of 4°C. Essentially linear impacts were predicted among precipitation change scenarios of -20, -10, 10, and 20 percent, which resulted in average annual flow changes at Grafton, Illinois, of -51, -27, 28, and 58 percent, respectively. The final two scenarios accounted for variable monthly temperature and precipitation changes obtained from a previous climate projection with and without the effects of CO2 doubling. The resultant average annual flows were predicted to increase by 15 and 52 percent in response to these climatic changes. Overall, the results indicate that the UMRB hydrology is very sensitive to potential future climate changes and that these changes could stimulate increased periods of flooding or drought.
منابع مشابه
Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: A regional climate model perspective
[1] Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin is evaluated by use of a regional climate model (RCM) coupled with a hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The RCM we used resolves, at least partially, some fine-scale dynamical processes that are important contributors to precipitation in this region and that are not well simulated by global mod...
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We evaluate the impact of climate change on stream flow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) by using a regional climate model (RCM) coupled with a hydrologic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was calibrated and validated against measured stream flow data using observed weather data and inputs from the Environmental Protection Agency’s BASINS (Better Assess...
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